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The Sabotage
Episode 509, “The Dance of Dragons,” opens with Melisandre reading the fires and witnessing the sabotage performed by Ramsay and his men. Carice Van Houten (Melisandre) does a great job in showing an expressive and concerned face when seeing these events before even heading out of the tent. The end result of this sabotage is that food is lacking, horses are dead, and supplies are destroyed. Based on the relatively small number of men who caused this damage, Stannis suspects that either his men fell asleep or some of them conspired with the enemy.
The Burning of an Innocent
The aftermath of the sabotage leads Stannis to take a drastic measure, the burning of his only heir, Shireen. Davos has always been suspicious of Melisandre finally convincing Stannis of taking this course of action. He is sent to Castle Black to negotiate with Jon for supplies, horses and food. In return, Stannis will ensure that the Night’s Watch will be properly manned once he becomes king. Davos tries to convince Stannis to get both Selyse and Shireen to come with him. Of course his request is denied.
The goodbye scene between Davos and Shireen was nicely done. In their conversation she introduces the topic of the first dance of dragons, a fight for the throne between two Targaryen half-siblings, Aegon II and Rhaenyra, a struggle that not only brought death to many people but also the extermination of actual dragons. In this conflict, the Targaryens did not mind becoming kinslayers, which is something that Stannis has become after killing Renly. Davos gives her a present, a figurine of a stag. Before Shireen is led to the pyre to be burned, she has a conversation with her father. He mentions that sometimes a man has to make choices to fulfil his destiny and become who he is meant to be regardless of how much he hates it. These words brings Jon to the viewer’s mind and what Maester Aemon said to him in “Kill the Boy” (episode 505): Jon will not like his position as a leader but he will do what needs to be done.
Has this event happened in the books? Shireen, Selyse and Melisandre never march with Stannis in the books. They remain at Castle Black. However, the general consensus is that Shireen will be sacrificed at certain point. By the end of the fifth book, A Dance with Dragons, there are rumours at Castle Black of Stannis being defeated by the Boltons. According to the “pink letter,” he is dead. Of course, these rumours are most likely lies. However, it might be the trigger for Melisandre to convince Selyse to burn Shireen. Other readers have speculated that she might be burned once Stannis becomes aware of the presence of Danaerys and her dragons. He might need Melisandre to raise a “stone dragon” in order to fight Danaerys, a theory that I do not agree with. It is unlikely for book Stannis to sacrifice his daughter. However, book Selyse is another matter.
Overall it is disappointing to see a an innocent and sweet character get burned after her father confessed that he was not ashamed of her and that he did everything to save her from greyscale some episodes back.
Gerrick Kingsblood, a Book Character
My personal opinion on this matter is that Shireen will make it to the end of the series (I could be wrong though). If Stannis is believed to be dead by the beginning of the next book, The Winds of Winter, Melisandre does have some suitable candidates to burn in order to bring Stannis back. Gerrick Kingsblood is a Wildling raider that is currently at the Wall. He is an indirect descendant of a King-Beyond-the-Wall, Raymun Redbeard. He has a son and three daughters. It is most likely that Melisandre will end up burning him and his son. Furthermore, in one of the “gift” chapters of The Winds of Winter, Stannis does not have any interest in sacrificing Shireen.
“You will avenge my death, and seat my daughter on the Iron Throne. Or die in the attempt.”
This is Stannis’ reply to one of his knights if the worst case scenario happens. However, it is possible for him to change his mind later on concerning Shireen.
The Aftermath
By burning Shireen, Stannis does not gain anything. However, speculations of what will probably happen next season can be done based on Stannis’ actions. The Northmen will not approve of his practice of burning. It is not only disturbing but also considered “kinslaying.” He will be alienated. TV Brienne who is in the North might be able to avenge Renly by killing Stannis.
Queen Selyse might grow mentally unstable. She has not been successful in producing what she considers a suitable heir to Stannis. Her reaction at looking at her own daughter’s burning is foretelling. Furthermore, it could mean that Stannis might put her aside and find another wife, even though I would consider this unlikely to happen. It will be awesome if Selyse is the one who kills Melisandre even though I doubt it will happen.
Davos Seaworth might no longer be Stannis’ Hand. He is honorable and considered Shireen his friend. He might ally with the Starks. In the books Davos is sent to look for Rickon Stark, who is at Skagos, by Lord Manderly. In the TV show, he might be assigned to do this by Sansa Stark. She might escape with Theon in the season finale with the purpose of finding her brothers.